439 Arlington Ave E

Saint Paul, MN · Payne – Phalen (Railroad Island) · Find the listing ↗

Overpriced

Asking price: $424,999
Monthly cash flow: −$790
Estimated rent: $3,300/mo
Break-even price: $276,574

Adjust these numbers in the calculator See the full breakdown

The numbers

Default: 20% down (no PMI), offer at asking, self-managed, 7.00% for 30 years, buyer pays closing costs (3%).

Estimated rent per unit Estimate

3 bed / 1 bath (est.)$1,650 $1,400–$1,900
3 bed / 1 bath (est.)$1,650 $1,400–$1,900

Rough screening estimate from bedroom count only ($750 + $300 per bedroom, ±15%). Not comparable-rental data; a RentCast estimate replaces it for the top candidates. Confidence: low.

Rent rules: Capped at 3%/yr for sitting tenants.

Price: $424,999
Monthly cash flow: −$790
Cash to close: $97,750
Cap rate: 4.2%
Cash-on-cash: −9.7%
DSCR: 0.65×
GRM: 10.7
Price per unit: $212,500
Price that breaks even: $276,574
Rent that breaks even: $4,313/mo
Cash flow turns positive: year 18
Year 30: property vs stocks: $1.05M vs $1.20M

Monthly breakdown

Rent	$3,300
Vacancy (6%)	−$198
Collected	$3,102
Property tax Public record	−$680
Insurance Estimate	−$192
Water, sewer, trash Estimate	−$170
Lawn care ($120 × 6 mo ÷ 12)	−$60
Repairs (8% of rent)	−$264
Capital reserve (8% of rent)	−$264
Net operating income	$1,472
Mortgage (principal + interest)	−$2,262
Cash flow	−$790
Principal paid down (equity, not cash)	$288

Cash flow each year

Rents +3%/yr (St. Paul's cap for sitting tenants), costs +3.5%/yr. Red bars are months you'd cover out of pocket.

30 years: this property vs. the same money in stocks

This propertyStocks at 7%

Year 30 (loan paid off): property $1.05M, stocks $1.20M. Stocks win.

How those totals add up

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,031,584
Minus 6% selling cost	−$61,895
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $382,499 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$26,860 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$31,380
What you'd walk away with	$1,001,069
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($55,250) invested at 7%	$420,576
Monthly shortfalls ($167,577 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$801,648
What you'd walk away with	$1,222,224
Building minus stocks	−$221,155

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,031,584
Minus 6% selling cost	−$61,895
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $382,499 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$0 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$0
What you'd walk away with	$969,689
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($55,250) invested at 7%	$420,576
Monthly shortfalls ($300,103 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$1,204,532
What you'd walk away with	$1,625,108
Building minus stocks	−$655,419

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,007,311
Minus 6% selling cost	−$60,439
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $373,499 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$33,017 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$39,455
What you'd walk away with	$986,328
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($53,950) invested at 7%	$410,680
Monthly shortfalls ($151,909 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$740,110
What you'd walk away with	$1,150,790
Building minus stocks	−$164,462

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,007,311
Minus 6% selling cost	−$60,439
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $373,499 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$0 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$0
What you'd walk away with	$946,873
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($53,950) invested at 7%	$410,680
Monthly shortfalls ($278,277 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$1,134,919
What you'd walk away with	$1,545,599
Building minus stocks	−$598,726

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,031,584
Minus 6% selling cost	−$61,895
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $339,999 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$62,069 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$81,161
What you'd walk away with	$1,050,850
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($97,750) invested at 7%	$744,096
Monthly shortfalls ($89,521 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$456,952
What you'd walk away with	$1,201,048
Building minus stocks	−$150,198

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,031,584
Minus 6% selling cost	−$61,895
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $339,999 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$3,651 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$3,816
What you'd walk away with	$973,505
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($97,750) invested at 7%	$744,096
Monthly shortfalls ($190,488 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$813,870
What you'd walk away with	$1,557,966
Building minus stocks	−$584,461

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,007,311
Minus 6% selling cost	−$60,439
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $331,999 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$70,503 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$94,341
What you'd walk away with	$1,041,214
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($95,450) invested at 7%	$726,588
Monthly shortfalls ($78,794 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$409,800
What you'd walk away with	$1,136,388
Building minus stocks	−$95,174

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,007,311
Minus 6% selling cost	−$60,439
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $331,999 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$6,106 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$6,528
What you'd walk away with	$953,401
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($95,450) invested at 7%	$726,588
Monthly shortfalls ($173,782 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$756,252
What you'd walk away with	$1,482,840
Building minus stocks	−$529,439

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,031,584
Minus 6% selling cost	−$61,895
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $318,749 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$85,834 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$119,538
What you'd walk away with	$1,089,227
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($119,000) invested at 7%	$905,856
Monthly shortfalls ($62,390 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$335,075
What you'd walk away with	$1,240,931
Building minus stocks	−$151,704

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,031,584
Minus 6% selling cost	−$61,895
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $318,749 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$11,634 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$12,957
What you'd walk away with	$982,646
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($119,000) invested at 7%	$905,856
Monthly shortfalls ($147,575 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$662,757
What you'd walk away with	$1,568,613
Building minus stocks	−$585,967

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,007,311
Minus 6% selling cost	−$60,439
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $311,249 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$95,282 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$135,874
What you'd walk away with	$1,082,746
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($116,200) invested at 7%	$884,542
Monthly shortfalls ($53,875 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$294,849
What you'd walk away with	$1,179,391
Building minus stocks	−$96,645

	Year 30
If you buy this building
Sale priceValue grows 3% a year from the price	$1,007,311
Minus 6% selling cost	−$60,439
Minus loan still owedTenants' rent paid down all $311,249 of principal by year 30	$0
Plus rental profits, invested at 7%$15,554 of profit by year 30, before investment growth	$17,730
What you'd walk away with	$964,603
If you put the same money in stocks
Cash to close ($116,200) invested at 7%	$884,542
Monthly shortfalls ($133,532 total by yr 30) investedThe money you'd have put into the building while it lost money	$610,970
What you'd walk away with	$1,495,512
Building minus stocks	−$530,909

Future dollars. At 3% inflation, divide year-30 figures by about 2.4 for today's buying power. Rental profits are assumed invested, not spent.

Red flags and opportunities

Watch for

mediumAsking is $148,425 above the price where cash flow breaks even ($276,574) at the default scenario. Based on: Derived: price $424,999 vs. break-even $276,574
low$432 in special assessments on the payable 2026 tax bill (often street, sewer or code-enforcement charges). Ask what they're for, whether they continue, and whether the seller pays them off at closing. Public record: Ramsey County parcel 202922230176: special assessments (payable 2026) = $432.50

Opportunities

None found.

Questions for the agent

Can we see the current leases and a rent roll, with move-in dates?
What did water/sewer/trash, heat and electric cost the owner over the last 12 months?
How old are the roof, boiler or furnaces, water heaters and electrical panels?
Is the building licensed as a rental for this many units, and when was the last city inspection?
Any special assessments pending, and will the seller pay them off at closing?

Standard questions worth asking about any building.

What the records say

Where each number comes from

Property tax / yr Public recordRamsey County record, payable 2026 (non-homestead)	$8,164
Insurance / yr Estimateestimate. from units, square feet and age; get a quote	$2,300
Water, sewer, trash / mo Estimateestimate. $85/unit/mo, owner-paid	$170
Heat / mo Assumptionassumption. tenants pay heat; confirm with the agent	$0
Lawn care / mo Assumptionassumption. $120/mo for 6 months, spread over 12; no snow removal	$60
Repairs / capital reserve Rulerule. base rate	8% / 8%

County record Public record

Recorded as	two family dwelling - side/side
Living units	2
Year built	1969
Market value (2026)	$386,500
Property tax, payable 2026	$8,164
Special assessments	$432
Homestead	no
Last sale	2023-02-24 · $420,000

Source: Ramsey County parcel records.

City rental certificate (CofO)

Residential 2 Units: 2 unit(s), A, status pending, renews 2025-07-18.

Nearest highway

I 35E;US 10, about 542 m away.

Crime in Payne – Phalen

1,694 incidents in the last 12 months (51 per 1,000 residents), −10% vs. the year before. St. Paul police incidents, excluding proactive visits and community events.

Status history

2026-09-11New at $424,999